In 2005, trade economist Pietra Rivoli conducted a groundbreaking study. She meticulously traced the life cycle of a single T-shirt, from a Texas cotton field to a Chinese factory, and finally to a consumer. Her journey illuminated the deeply interconnected and cooperative nature of the global trade system at the time. [39, 48]
Today, Rivoli observes a fundamentally new system arising. [35, 37] The predictable, cooperative framework she once documented is being challenged. The smooth flow of goods across borders is no longer guaranteed, as a new era of confrontational trade practices takes hold.
At the heart of this shift are aggressive protectionist measures, particularly the use of 'hardball' tariffs. [4] This has sparked a debate, which Rivoli now examines: are these tariffs a legitimate economic policy, or are they being used as a geopolitical 'cudgel'—a blunt weapon to force trading partners into making concessions? [5, 12, 3]
This new approach to trade creates significant uncertainty. It disrupts established supply chains and raises costs for both producers and consumers. Economists like Rivoli are now tasked with analyzing whether this emerging system is a sustainable model for the future or a destructive departure from the principles of free trade.