The confidence that Russia's leaders once had in diplomatic solutions has begun to erode. [4, 8, 28, 33, 35] President Vladimir Putin, specifically, now views negotiations with the United States as entirely futile. [30, 36, 47, 49, 51] This profound shift in mindset signals a potentially dangerous new era in international relations.
Convinced that dialogue will not produce results, the Kremlin is developing a new strategy. This strategy is designed to deliver a significant shock to Western powers and reassert Russia's global influence.
The internal belief may be that this will demonstrate strength and resolve. However, this approach is fraught with considerable risk.
The rulers in Russia might not fully anticipate the true consequences of their actions. [3, 12, 40, 42, 43] The very shock they are planning for their adversaries could rebound, becoming a nasty and self-inflicted blow.